Autumn arrives on Thursday, Sept. 22 and the forecast for the day reflects the change in season.
For those fretting over the cooler weather, it’s not all bad news, meteorologists are predicting a “warmer-than-normal” fall in parts of Ontario.
The new season officially arrives at 9:03 p.m. and temperatures are expected to plummet to 5 C overnight in Toronto. Friday, Sept. 23 will be mainly sunny with a high near 16 C.
Good Thursday morning! Cooler air with falling temps for the start of AstronomicalAutumn 🍂 It arrives 9:03pm. Guaranteed High 19°C already reached. We’ll drop to near 12°C this afternoon then down near 5°C or even cooler overnight. Chance lake effect showers with gusty nw wind— Jill Taylor (@JillTaylorCity) September 22, 2022
Despite the chilly start, Ontarians can expect above seasonal temperatures until at least November. The Weather Network released its annual fall forecast last week and the outlook suggests extended periods of pleasant weather through October.
“Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate much of the fall season,” reads the network’s forecast for Ontario. “This should provide ideal conditions at times for enjoying the fall foliage.”
The meteorologists do warn, though, that much of the province could see more typical late-fall weather when November arrives, with temperatures expected to cool significantly.
“There are signs that the mild pattern will break down before we get to the end of the season,” the forecast suggests. “This year, we expect fewer storms than what we typically see, but a couple that do occur could still pack quite a punch with strong winds and enough precipitation.”
The possibility of stronger storms means the overall precipitation levels are still expected to be near-normal this fall.
Warm and dry fall for much of Canada
For Canada as a whole, warmer-than-normal conditions are also expected across most of the country.
“September, October, and November feature a gentle start to the season for most of Canada, with extended periods of pleasant fall weather deep into October,” the Weather Network says.
A Weather Network forecast map shows “near normal” or “above normal” temperatures are expected across the entirety of the country.
The forecast warns the extended period of warmer weather through the early part of the fall could result in a longer-than-normal fire season, especially in Western Canada.
The Farmers Almanac issued its Extended Winter Weather Forecast in August. The long-range weather predicting publication is calling for several winter storms Canada-wide.
Specifically for Ontario, the long-range forecaster says a decent amount of snow could hit the province and Québec between Jan. 20 and Jan. 23. The forecast also calls for very cold temperatures.
“During the month of January, Canadians may see one of the coldest arctic outbreaks in recent years,” the Almanac says.
David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, tells The Sam Laprade Show on Sept. 21 that he is observing maps for October, and there is no part of the country that is anticipated to be colder than normal.
"It's been about a degree and a half warmer than normal," he says. "There lots of summer left in the air."
Listen to the full interview with David Phillips below:
With files from Lucas Casaletto and CityNews Ottawa.