Ford’s Conservatives hold 10-point lead over Crombie’s Liberals, new poll shows

Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s approval rating may be middling, but his Conservative government still appears to be the favourite over his primary political counterpart.

A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada suggests that Premier Ford is holding a 10-point lead over Bonnie Crombie and the Ontario Liberal Party, citing the Conservatives as the level of government doing the most to support new housing.

The survey was conducted from March 8 and March 9, 2024, polling 1,283 residents.

“The Ford PCs are up compared to our February survey but not by much,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies.

“This month, the PCs are at 39 per cent (+1) followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent (-1) and the [New Democratic Party] at 21 per cent (-1). The Greens are at 5 per cent (no change), and the ‘other’ parties are polling at 6 per cent (+1).”

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The provincial Liberals appear to be faring better in different regions, specifically Northern Ontario, where Crombie’s government leads by 1 per cent over the PCs (34 per cent to 33 per cent). In Southcentral Ontario, Hamilton and Niagara, Ford’s government is leading the NDP, but only by 5 per cent.

The Liberals and PCs are tied in Toronto, and the PCs lead the Liberals by three points in Mississauga.

“All of that is to say the provincial Tories are doing well, but they’re not quite running away with it, and there are areas of opportunity for the opposition parties,” Valentin added.

Housing a priority for Ontarians, poll suggests

Respondents appear to be firmly in favour of Ford’s progress regarding housing. Polling shows that 40 per cent of those surveyed said the provincial government has done the most with provincial housing, with the federal and municipal governments in a tie for second at 24 per cent.

“Overall, 41 per cent of Ontarians say the same amount of housing is being built now as it was five years ago,” Valentin said. “Fifty-seven per cent say the right amount of housing is being built in their community, but 55 per cent say not enough housing is being built province-wide.”

Since Crombie became the front-runner in the Liberal leadership race in the fall, Ford and his caucus have often attacked the now-leader of the third-place party rather than spending time talking about the Official Opposition NDP.

The conservatives have also criticized Crombie’s housing record and painted her as an elite who is out of touch with voters.

Crombie was elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party in December 2022.

Separate survey shows Ford’s current approval rating

In a separate poll, Ford’s approval rating is among the lowest in terms of active Canadian Premiers.

According to the Angus Reid Institute, Ford placed seventh out of ninth (34 per cent) in his Canadian counterparts’ March approval ratings, ahead of Quebec’s Francois Legault (32 per cent) and New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs (31 per cent).

Ford’s approval rating has remained in the 30 percentile since December 2022, dipping to 28 per cent in September 2023. His current March 2024 approval rating of 34 per cent remained unchanged from December 2023.

“Ontario’s Doug Ford announced his intention to ‘Get It Done’ last month, introducing new legislation to streamline infrastructure projects by shortening environmental assessments and speeding up approval processes,” the Angus Reid Institute writes in its summary. “Cooperation with the federal Conservatives may be less than a given, however, if that party does indeed form the next government in Ottawa.

“Ford and his Progressive Conservatives will hope that getting it done will help to boost his stagnant personal approval rate, which hasn’t exceeded its current 34 per cent mark since September 2022,” the Angus Reid Institute concluded.

With files from The Canadian Press