Ford’s comfortable lead over Liberals would shrink if election called early: Pollster

Doug Ford’s government would be taking a huge risk if it called an early election, according to the results of a new poll.

The poll, by Liason Stategies, found Ford’s Ontario PCs currently hold a comfortable 11-point lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, but that lead would shrink by more than half in the event of an early election.

“Doug Ford’s lead actually drops from 11 points to five points,” David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies told CityNews.

“This could really shake up the race in a way that the premier wouldn’t want,” he said.

Valentin said according to the poll results, an early election would likely result in a minority, rather than majority government.

“We’d be looking at a minority government and it really would depend on some really close races.”

According to the poll, the Ontario PCs would be punished in Northern Ontario, Toronto, Hamilton, and Niagara the most in the event of early trip to the polls.

“In the North the PCs drop from 1st to 3rd, in Toronto instead of trailing the Ontario Liberals by 3 points they would be behind by 10 points, and in South Central it would flip from a 3-point lead for the PCs to a 6-point lead for the Ontario NDP,” Valentin noted.

Valentin also points out how voters punished the Ontario Liberals back in 1990 when then-Premier David Peterson called an early vote and ended up losing to Bob Rae’s NDP, which formed a surprise majority government.

At the time, Valentin said the Liberals took heat for the cost of the early election.

Could a shocking outcome be the result this time around? Nothing’s out of the question, Valentin said.

“No pollsters in 1990 believed at the start of the campaign that Premier David Peterson would lose the election. And no one believed at the start (and some even near the finish!) that Bob Rae and the NDP would form a majority government.”

“While the PCs would take an immediate hit in support, no one can predict what would happen during an election campaign. An early election would be a calculated risk and it’s very possible that PC voters that switch from PC to undecided would ultimately vote PC. It’s also possible the PCs would lose and a Liberal or NDP government would be elected.”

The next election is set for June 2026, but Ford hasn’t ruled out the possibility of an early election next spring.