Federal Election 2025: Key races to watch across Canada

It’s expected to be a tight race between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) come election day on April 28.

Since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned and current Liberal leader Mark Carney took over, the Liberals have seen a stunning reversal of fortune. Just four months ago, the party seemed headed for political annihilation as the Conservatives enjoyed a two-to-one advantage in support across various polls.

Now, most polls have the Liberals pulling ahead slightly over Pierre Poilievre and the CPC. That means key races across the country will be more crucial than ever for victory.

Here are some key ridings to watch across Canada:

B.C.

Abbotsford-South Langley

Retiring Conservative MP Ed Fast made headlines this month when he endorsed an independent candidate for the new riding of Abbotsford-South Langley.

Mike de Jong, a former provincial Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), got a nod from Fast despite being dropped by the federal Conservatives in late March with “no explanation.”

He’ll be facing Kevin Gillies for the Liberals and businessman and community advocate Sukhman Singh Gill from the Conservatives.

Burnaby Central

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is hoping to hold onto a seat in the House of Commons with the new riding of Burnaby Central, but early polls indicate the leader could be at risk of losing his seat to the Liberals.

Lawyer Wade Chang is running for the Liberal Party against Singh and businessman James Yan for the Conservatives

North Island—Powell River

The riding, which geographically covers half of Vancouver Island and much of the province’s coast, became the subject of some controversy when Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn’s hateful statements about Indigenous people and the country’s history of residential schools came to light.

Despite several prominent groups repeatedly protesting Gunn’s candidacy, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has continued to back Gunn, and polls identify him as a frontrunner in the riding.

Saanich—Gulf Islands

Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May’s long-held seat in the riding is in contention, with polls predicting a toss-up between May and Conservative candidate Cathie Ounsted.

Vancouver Kingsway

The East Vancouver riding — not to be confused with Vancouver East — has been an NDP stronghold since 2008.

Incumbent Don Davies is fighting a wave of declining national enthusiasm for the New Democrats, with support gathering under Liberal candidate Amy Gill.

Alberta

Edmonton Southeast

Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is hoping to make the jump to federal politics, taking a leave of absence to run for the Liberals in the newly created riding of Edmonton Southeast. He’ll be going up against Conservative candidate Jagsharan Singh Mahal, a lawyer and community leader and the NDP’s Harpreet Grewal, a nurse and community leader.

Edmonton Centre

The Liberals are trying to hold on to one of their few seats in Alberta with a new candidate this time after Randy Boissonnault elected not to run again. Boissonnault’s time in office has been tumultuous over the last year. He resigned from cabinet last November amid controversy over his business dealings and skepticism about his claims of Indigenous identity.

Army veteran Elenor Olszewski is running for the Liberals, economist Sayid Ahmed will be on the ballot for the Conservatives, and the NDP are running former broadcaster and schoolboard trustee Trisha Estabrooks.

Edmonton Griesbach

The NDP’s Blake Desjarlais won this traditionally Conservative north Edmonton riding in the last election, narrowly beating out CPC incumbent Kerry Diotte. Initial polling is showing another tight race between the CPC and NDP, with both candidates running again.

Edmonton Gateway

Edmonton Gateway is another riding created by the redrawn boundaries. The Liberals have had a revolving door of candidates in this race, with former Alberta NDP Rod Loyola being kicked out and replaced with lawyer Jeremy Hoefsloot. Loyola is now running as an independent.

They both will be facing off against longtime CPC politician Tim Uppal. He was the MP for Edmonton Mill Woods, which was partly absorbed into Edmonton Gateway.

Calgary Confederation

The Conservatives have held the Calgary Confederation riding since it was created in 2015, but Len Webber, who was the MP for the riding, will not be running in the 2025 election. Jeremy Nixon is in the running to continue Webber’s legacy, while the Liberals named Corey Hogan, VP of the University of Calgary, as their candidate.

Early polls indicated the riding is a toss-up between the Conservatives and Liberals.

Calgary Centre

The Conservatives flipped Calgary Centre with a 20,000-vote victory in 2019, and it has remained blue, but the Liberals have regained some ground in the region, and it could be at risk of another flip.

Incumbent Greg McLean is running for the CPC, facing off against local businesswoman Lindsay Luhnau for the Liberals.

Calgary Skyview

This Liberal-held riding will have a new MP after this election due to the current MP, George Chahal, running in the newly created Calgary McKnight riding. Hafeez Malik will hope to continue the Liberal run here, but will be facing off against Amanpreet Gill.

Polling indicates the Liberals have a slight lead over the CPC.

Prairies

Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski 

Another NDP stronghold that is now a toss-up in the polls is Churchill-Keewatinook-Aski. NDP incumbent Niki Ashton had a comfortable 18-point victory over the Liberal candidate in 2021. Ashton’s foreign travel during COVID caused controversy and led to her losing her shadow cabinet critic roles. 

Elmwood-Transcona 

NDP incumbent Leila Dance is neck-and-neck in the polls with Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds. She narrowly won with about a four-point margin in the Sept. 2024 byelection compared to the NDP’s 22-point victory in 2021. 

Since 1988, The NDP has won this riding in every election except 2011. 

Winnipeg West: 

Conservative candidate Marty Morantz won narrowly by 24 votes in 2021. In 2025, Morantz is hoping to keep his seat against Liberal candidate Doug Eyolfson, who is drawing support from NDP voters. 

Winnipeg Centre 

NDP incumbent Leah Gazan is at risk of losing her seat despite an easy victory in 2021 when she beat the Liberal candidate by 21 points. Gazen is now neck-and-neck with the Liberal candidate, community advocate Rahul Walia.

Ontario

Carleton

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s riding will likely be a safe win for the incumbent, but it could be a while before the country hears the results, as he is facing a whopping 90 candidates. The reason for the uncommon length of candidates has to do with a group advocating for electoral reform, called the Longest Ballot Committee.

Previous elections in which they have flooded the ballot have taken hours to count the votes.

Guelph

The riding is without an incumbent after long-time Liberal Lloyd Longfield said he was not running.

Anna Esselment, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, notes it has been a stronghold for the liberals since Jean Chrétien won it in 1993. However, due to Guelph being held provincially by the Greens, Esselment notes it could be interesting to see if voters switch.

Kitchener-Conestoga

After narrowly missing the win in 2019 and 2021, the Conservatives are eyeing the riding of Kitchener-Conestoga. Liberal incumbent Tim Louis won it from the Tories, who had held it for over a dozen years prior to 2019.

Louis will be facing entrepreneur Doug Treleaven for the Conservatives.

Nepean

Liberal leader Mark Carney will be trying to win his first election in the Ottawa-area riding. Liberal Chandra Arya had held the seat since 2015 and was planning to run again until the Liberal Party revoked his nomination, but did not give a reason why.

Polls show the Liberal stronghold will likely stay red in the upcoming election.

Peterborough

With newly drawn boundaries, the Conservative-held riding of Peterborough is at risk of flipping to the Liberals.

Incumbent Michelle Ferreri will be facing off against Emma Harrison for the Liberals, a farmer and small business owner in the area, and Heather Ray, who is also a farmer, for the NDP.

Toronto-St. Paul’s

The riding was once considered a Liberal stronghold until shocking byelection results flipped the seat to the Conservatives by just 600 votes. The June 2024 byelection was seen as a test for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid dropping poll numbers for the Liberals.

Incumbent Don Stewart, a financial and marketing specialist, is hoping to hold onto his seat as he faces former MP Leslie Church, who also served as chief of staff to former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, once again.

Polling indicates the riding will flip back to red in the 2025 election.

Windsor West

This border-adjacent riding has been an NDP stronghold for the last two decades, but with rising tensions between the U.S., could the residents want a change?

Polling has indicated the riding is a toss-up between the NDP and the Liberals. Incumbent Brian Masse will be facing off against lawyer and community leader Richard Pollock.

Quebec

La Pointe-de-l’Île

One of two Montreal ridings held by the Bloc Québécois is likely to be a tight race between three-time Bloc MP Mario Beaulieu and Liberal candidate Viviane Minko. The Liberals have never won here since the riding was created in 2004.

The Green party candidate is Olivier Huard, who was arrested for scaling the Jacques Cartier Bridge in October 2024. He’s balancing court dates with his election campaign.

LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

The second Montreal riding belonging to the Bloc Québécois, candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé edged out a victory in what was considered a Liberal stronghold in the September 2024 byelection.

It was a tight three-way battle between the Bloc, the Liberals and the NDP and the loss was seen as a big setback for then-prime minister Justin Trudeau.

But with the Liberals polling well across the board, could the Bloc be looking at a complete wipeout in the Montreal area?

Mount Royal

Mount Royal has long been a Liberal stronghold, with incumbent Anthony Housefather seeking a fourth term.

Conservatives are countering with lawyer Neil Oberman. The riding has voted Liberal for 85 years, and Housefather was among the Liberal MPs saying Justin Trudeau should step aside.

He endorsed Chrystia Freeland during the Liberal leadership race, but defended Mark Carney after he slipped up and mistakenly said he agreed with Hamas during the French leadership debate.

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

This riding is currently the only NDP seat in Quebec, held by incumbent Alexandre Boulerice, who is quite popular. Will the area buck the national trend shifting towards the Liberals, or will the NDP hold on?

Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville

Bloc candidate Patrick O’Hara lost by 12 votes in the 2021 election before the riding was redistributed. O’Hara is back this time around, but the opposition is different. Polytechnique survivor and gun control activist Nathalie Provost is looking to keep the riding Liberal red.

Early in the campaign, Mark Carney mispronounced Provost’s name and got the location of the Polytechnique massacre wrong. He later apologized.

Beloeil—Chambly

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet is likely to hold onto his seat in Beloeil, but could the Liberals and Conservatives gain ground in the usual Bloc stronghold amid economic concerns and a recent surge of Canadian patriotism among Quebecers?

Berthier—Maskinongé 

This riding is considered a possible second seat for the NDP in Quebec.

Former NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau, forever known as “Vegas Girl” in the province, got elected during the 2011 “orange wave” despite taking a trip to Las Vegas during that year’s campaign.

She held onto the seat in 2015 but lost the next two elections to the Bloc’s Yves Perron. It’s expected to be a close contest between the NDP, Liberals and Bloc.

Academic and entrepreneur Stephane Bilodeau is running for the Liberals.

Atlantic

Halifax

The New Democratic Party have a likeable and “strong” candidate in Lisa Roberts, who is well known in the community after winning a seat in the provincial government in 2016, although polls still show her a distant second to the Liberal candidate Shannon Miedema.

Former Liberal MP Andy Fillmore held the seat until 2024, since taking it from the NDP in 2015, but he resigned to run for mayor of Halifax.

South Shore-St. Margarets

Conservative incumbent Rick Perkins defeated the incumbent Liberal candidate in this riding in 2021. Based on current polling numbers, the Liberals are just a few points behind Perkins with candidate Jessica Fancy-Landry.

Acadie-Annapolis

Polls are showing an extremely tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives in the riding. The incumbent Chris D’Entremont has held the riding since 2019 but is facing a Liberal candidate who made the jump from provincial to federal politics for this election.