To call or not to call a federal election? There are reasons for and against either decision: analyst

As Canada gets closer to the average time in office for a minority federal government — 18 months — political analysts are starting to look into how an election would be held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Cam Holmstrom, consultant at Bluesky Stategy Group, safety would most likely be the biggest concern if an election were to be called during the third wave of the pandemic.

The government and other parties, especially the Conservatives, he says, would need to be careful about public backlash if they were to force an election.

“Because in context, why are you doing this?” he says. “What is the necessity for this if the public health people are saying this is not a good idea? And you have to answer that. It’ll turn the stakes of the election pretty quick.”

The campaign trail, he adds, would also be very different. It might mean Canadians wouldn’t see the same type of rallies and fundraisers, but instead could see campaigns go completely online.

On top of that, the logistical challenges of actually holding an election is problematic right now because more schools and halls are not available for use — not to mention that not enough people would be vaccinated by the time an election was to roll around.

However, it would make it a more even fight between the parties, Holmsrom adds.

“When you’re running a national campaign, what are your biggest expenses?” he asks. “It’s the staffing, but it’s also all these other big events stuff. If you’re stripping all that out, to run social media campaigns wouldn’t be all that expensive. So, it comes down more to skill, ingenuity and ability. The actually ability to put it out there is levelled and comes down to who can do it better.”

But, he adds, there will be no election unless the government or the Conservatives are given the go-ahead from public health, in order to avoid any backlash from Canadians concerned with safety.