The old saying “may next year be better than the last,” can certainly be applied to the final sales number of 2022 as the number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Renfrew County Real Estate Board totalled 84 units in November of 2022.
Not even a sharp December bump will hide the fact the November total was a dismal decrease of 39.1 per cent compared to sales figures to the previous year. The number of homes sold through the MLS System of the Renfrew County Real Estate Board totalled 138 units in November of 2021.
The decrease of 54 home sales compared to the previous November was just a continuation of a year-long slump that began in March and never bounced back. December is traditionally the slowest month of the year, so it is more than likely 2022 may turn out to be one of the worst sales years in more than a decade.
The low sales number almost mirrored the national average. According to the most recent report by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2022 came in 38.9 per cent below a near-record for that month last year and stood about 13 per cent below the pre-COVID-19 10-year average for November sales.
According to Jill Oudil, chair of the CREA, sales were down pretty much across all regions of Canada.
“There were no big surprises in the November housing numbers, with the data showing the same trends of lower sales and moderating prices we’ve been seeing for a number of months now,” she said. “That said, while the interest rate situation facing buyers is unlikely to improve over the first half of 2023, it is more likely to remain the same. However, it may also be the first spring market in a number of years where buyers have a shot at not being out-competed for properties that catch their eye.”
Home sales were 30.8 per cent below the five-year average and 23.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of November.
On a year-to-date basis, home sales totalled 1,602 units over the first 11 months of the year. This was down sharply by 26.5 per cent from the same period in 2021.
The average price of homes sold in November of 2022 was $443,889, a decrease of 5.5 per cent from November of 2021.
Despite the downward trend in actual sales, the upward trend of the amount of money made on each sale continued. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $467,551, a sizable gain of 15.7 per cent from the first 11 months of 2021.
However, the overall reduction of the number of units sold resulted in the overall dollar value of all home sales in November 2022 coming in at only $37.3 million, a substantial reduction of 42.5 per cent from the same month in 2021.
According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, this was expected not only in the Ottawa Valley, but across the nation.
“November’s housing data from across Canada came in as expected – still pretty quiet – and that is unlikely to improve this winter with the Bank of Canada raising rates again last week,” Cathcart said. “It will be interesting to see what buyers do when listings start to come out in big numbers in the spring, and even more interesting to see what happens a little later then the Bank of Canada, now widely thought to be at or very near the top of its tightening cycle, starts to eventually cut rates. All the other fundamental factors needed for the market to take off again are still out there.”
In the Ottawa Valley the number of new listings saw a sharp decrease of 11.2 per cent from November of 2021. There were 127 new residential listings in November of 2022. New listings were 7.7 per cent below the five-year average and 14.1 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of November.
Active residential listings numbered 320 units on the market at the end of November, up sharply by 69.3 per cent from the end of November of 2021.
Active listings were 14.9 per cent below the five-year average and 48.9 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of November.
Months of inventory numbered 3.8 at the end of November of 2022, up from the 1.4 months recorded at the end of November 2021 and below the long-run average of 6.2 months for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.