CityNews poll shows flagging support for federal Liberals in major cities

After the federal Liberals lost byelections in Toronto and Montreal, new polling data shows that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his party are deeply unpopular in other major Canadian cities, too.

The survey, conducted by Maru Public Opinion for CityNews, found that only 21 per cent of respondents in four of Canada’s largest metro areas believe Justin Trudeau and his party deserve to be re-elected in the next election.

The sentiment runs highest in Edmonton, where only 17 per cent believe the Liberals should get another chance to form government. Support is only slightly stronger in Toronto, where 25 per cent said Trudeau and his party deserve re-election.

Since losing a byelection in the once-safe Liberal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June, Trudeau has faced increasing pressure to consider stepping down as leader before the next election to give his party a chance.

Speculation about a leadership change has ramped up after the Liberals this week narrowly lost another stronghold in byelection in the Montreal riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun – a seat once held by former prime minister Paul Martin – to the Bloc Quebecois candidate.

Trudeau has repeatedly rejected the suggestion the Liberals would improve their electoral prospects if he left, insisting he remains the best positioned to take on the Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre.

The Maru poll shows, however, that a substantially higher number of residents of Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver would support the party if Trudeau stepped down. 

Nearly one third (31 per cent) of respondents in the four cities said they would consider voting Liberal if the party had a different leader. 

That sentiment was strongest in Toronto and Vancouver, both at 34 per cent, and weakest in Edmonton (28 per cent) and Calgary (26 per cent).

But a leadership switch still wouldn’t sway nearly half (48 per cent) of those surveyed, who say they would not consider casting their ballot for a Liberal candidate, regardless of the leader.

The poll shows Trudeau is ”the greatest detriment to vote-getting for the Liberal Party of Canada,” says John Wright, CEO of Maru Public Opinion. 

“Over this poll you find a third of all of the people that we’ve surveyed basically say that, if there was another party leader, I’d be looking at the Liberals to potentially vote for them,” Wright said. 

“He is now perceived as the biggest problem in the country.”

Even in Toronto, more respondents (29 per cent) believe Poilievre and the Conservatives would do a better job addressing the city’s needs than Trudeau’s Liberals (26 per cent) – an outcome consistent with the Conservative’s upset win in the June byelection.

The numbers in Canada’s largest city are even worse for the New Democrats. The Maru polls shows only 14 per cent of respondents in the GTA believe leader Jagmeet Singh and the NDP would be the best for Toronto.

Dominance in major cities like Toronto and Montreal has been the key to Liberal election wins in 2015, 2019, and 2021.  And although the Liberals were completely shut out in Alberta in 2019, they won a seat in Calgary and another in Edmonton in 2021.

But with the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by as much as 21 percentage points in national polls over the past year, seats in most major metropolitan areas are back in play for opposition parties.

The Conservative strength could be tested as soon as this fall. Poilievre said Wednesday he intends to bring a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons next week.

Unless the Liberals can get support on the vote from MPs from another party, the government would fall and force Trudeau to call a federal election.

The NDP last week tore up the agreement to keep the Liberals in power and have not yet indicated how they might vote on the Conservative motion. But Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said Wednesday that his MPs will not support the motion.

The poll was conducted between August 29-September 6, 2024, among a random selection of 1,801 Canadian adults who are Unlock Surveys online panelists. Respondents were surveyed within the specific cities of Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary. Probability samples of this size have an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.