Fall could be the best real estate market in years: Report

Following a global pandemic, fluctuating inflation and shifting interest rates over the past several years, a Zoocasa report says fall 2024 could be the best real estate market Canadians have seen in years.

Using recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, the real estate brokerage highlights in it’s new report why this could be the case, including interest rate drops and stabilizing prices.

According to Zoocasa, Ottawa’s housing market saw minimal price fluctuation over the past several years.

While average housing prices rose in the nation’s capital from $642,314 in September 2021 to a peak of $658,931 in September 2023, prices settled at $647,604 in August 2024.

Price stability gives buyers more predictability and less concern about sudden price fluctuations, allowing buyers to better plan their budgets, the report notes.

Additionally, the Bank of Canada‘s recent reduction in prime rate means that fall could be the most advantageous time to purchase a property, compared with recent years.

Following a steep climb from 2.70 per cent to 7.20 per cent between March 2022 and July 2023, the recent decline of the prime lending rate to 6.45 per cent in September could provide significant benefits to home buyers, added the real estate brokerage.

This includes more manageable mortgage payments, qualifying for larger loans or easing financial strain.

Ottawa has landed within the top ten “hottest buyers’ and sellers’ markets in Canada in fall 2024,” with its sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) reflecting a balanced market.

While the sales-to-new-listings ratios (SNLR) indicates the level of demand and supply in each market, this can tell buyers and sellers about local market conditions.

Canadians have already seen three rate cuts this year, the trend of rate reductions is renewing people’s confidence and now is an opportune time for first-time homebuyers to enter the market, wrote Zoocasa.

“As borrowing costs trend lower over the next year-and-a-half, home buyers will initially benefit from both lower monthly mortgage payments and lower home prices,” Jason Mercer, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Chief Market Analyst, said. “Even as demand picks up, especially in 2025, it will take time for the inventory of listings to be absorbed. Ample choice in the market will help keep price growth moderate, at least in the initial phases of recovery,” he added. 

Based on data, only Greater Toronto and the Niagara Region are buyer’s markets, as SNLR landed below 40 per cent.

While Greater Toronto also reached the highest year-to-date new listings in Canada from January to August 2024, Ottawa placed seventh — with 20,382 new listings.

Increased levels of home construction in these markets may be a contributing factor to the gains in new listings, the report mentioned.

Trending across Canada

Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has reflected the latest trends housing markets across the country, said the report by Zoocasa.

The report also noted that the average home price in Vancouver dropped from $1,304,550 in September 2023 to $1,253,823 in August 2024.

“With the lower prices and interest rates, it could be the perfect moment to secure a home in one of Canada’s most sought-after cities (Vancouver),” wrote Zoocasa.

Additionally, the real estate brokerage described this fall as the opportune time to enter Calgary’s real estate market.

While Calgary housing prices haven consistently risen — reaching $622,261 in August 2024, up from $555,694 in September 2023 and $508,011 in September 2022 — home prices have shown steady growth since 2020.

Year-to-date new listings in Calgary in 2024 have reached 34,399, a significant increase compared to 16,109 listings in September 2020, with data showing significant growth over recent years.

“Fall 2024 is shaping to be unique in its own right. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, this season presents new opportunities in a market that’s evolving once again,” said Zoocasa.