2024 Ontario fall economic statement: Deficit cut to $6.6B, few new initiatives

As the Ford government aims to advance an agenda centred around building Ontario infrastructure and jobs, officials have unveiled few new initiatives beyond what was previously announced in the 2024 budget as they slash the projected deficit by more than $3 billion.

In the 2024 Ontario fall economic statement unveiled at Queen’s Park Wednesday afternoon, the government is currently set to run a $6.6-billion deficit for the 2024-2025 budget year as it’s on track to spend more than $218 billion.

The current forecast deficit is down from $9.8 billion forecast in the 2024 Ontario budget unveiled in March, which is attributed to increased government revenues as well as an improved economic forecast due to population and job growth, lower interest rates and inflation in recent months.

The Ontario government projected a nearly $7-billion increase in revenue compared to when it tabled the budget at the end of the March due to increases in personal income, sales and corporation taxes.

With speculation growing about a potential early election call ahead of the fixed date in mid-2026, officials say they’re set to cut the deficit to $1.5 billion in 2025-2026 while keeping a separate $1.5 billion in reserves before a projected $900 million surplus in 2026-2027.

“I’m putting forward the most credible plan based on the information that we have, putting that plan out to the people of Ontario,” Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy told reporters Wednesday afternoon.

“We’re putting more money back in the pockets of Ontarians when they need it most, and keeping taxes and fees low for families and businesses. At the same time, we are building roads and highways, building transit, building hospitals and building schools.”

While many initiatives continue from previous budgets and announcements, the fall economic statement, which acts as a mini-budget, included a few new measures:

• $100 million over two years for mainly small, rural and northern municipalities (it’s unclear how the funding will be divided)
• $100 million to Invest Ontario program to assist with “attracting major investments” to the province
• $17 million over three years to create 100 new “active living centres” for seniors

Bethlenfalvy and Premier Doug Ford already announced two main affordability items from the fiscal update: a continuation of a temporary cut to the gas tax until June, and a $3-billion plan to send $200 cheques to every Ontario taxpayer.

In the lead-up to the fall economic statement, opposition critics have suggested the cheques that are set to be mailed early next year are timed to arrive ahead of a possible spring election.

Meanwhile, the provincial government is still on track to spend more than $191 billion on infrastructure over the next 10 years with more than $97 billion of that total on transit ($68.1 billion), highways ($27.8 billion) and other transportation-related projects. Hospitals are the second-biggest sector to see infrastructure spending with a projected

The fall economic statement also discussed feasibility studies related to the Ford government’s contemplation of building a lengthy tunnel under Highway 401.

However, the financial blueprint didn’t contain details on how much is being spent to study the concept of building a tunnel or other major projects like Highway 413.

After the fall economic statement was tabled in the legislature, Ontario’s opposition parties slammed it shortly after.

“[It] is a reminder that life in Ontario after more than six years of this conservative government has gotten more expensive and not better. The government has failed to deliver on the basics,” Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles said.

“Instead of making real investments to keep emergency rooms open, helping 2.5 million people find a family doctor, addressing the urgent need for long-term financial relief, or making housing more affordable, Doug Ford introduced yet another failed fall economic statement that puts his rich friends first, and you and your family last,” the Ontario Liberal Party charged.

“The Ford government has abandoned us. All the things that we should be able to expect from provincial governments – to keep our neighbours housed, to make sure homes get built, that doctors are available, mental health is accessible – the premier has walked away from,” the Green Party of Ontario added.

More to come.

With files from The Canadian Press