Democrat or Republican, Canada will work with Congress after midterms: Trudeau

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was hanging on to a modest early lead Tuesday over Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in one of the only contests of the 2022 midterm elections with direct implications for Canada. 

Dixon, a steel-industry insider turned conservative commentator, called Justin Trudeau  “the most radical environmentalist in the entire world” last month as she attacked the governor's bid to shut down the cross-border Line 5 pipeline.

It's about the only one of countless gubernatorial, House and Senate races that were coming to fruition Tuesday where a change in leadership would have immediate consequences for a central element of Canada-U.S. relations. 

With about 30 per cent of polls reporting, Whitmer had a widening advantage of about 100,000 votes over Dixon, a Donald Trump endorsee who has endorsed the former president's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. 

Elsewhere across the U.S., the elections were unfolding largely as expected, with Republicans on track to take over control of the House of Representatives, but control of the evenly divided Senate still very much up in the air.

Either way, Canada will endure, said Joel Sokolsky, a political science professor and foreign policy expert at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont. 

“Between the Democrats and Republicans in terms of America First, regarding manufacturing, I don't think there's that much difference,” Sokolsky said. “Biden, in fact, it's very clear that he wants to bring jobs back to the United States.” 

Republicans have already signalled they have no interest in undermining ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine for its war against Russia, he added.

“I think in terms of broader issues — Ukraine, the broader NATO alliance — I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference who is in control of Congress.” 

Neck-and-neck races in battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Georgia all but ensured that the question of whether Republicans could wrest control of the upper chamber away from Democrats would not be resolved right away. 

In Ohio, venture capitalist and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance — another Republican with Trump's seal of approval — was widening his lead over congressman Tim Ryan, a Democrat who's tried distance himself from President Joe Biden. 

But in ever-important Pennsylvania, where officials had been warning about delays in results, Democratic Lt.-Gov. John Fetterman was leading TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz by about five percentage points, with just over half the polls in the state reporting. 

That shifted the early focus to Georgia, where former NFL running back Herschel Walker was swapping leads with Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, both of them tantalizingly close to the 50 per cent threshold necessary to avoid a run-off election next month. 

With three-quarters of the votes counted, Walker was leading Warnock by a scant 35,000 votes, but still half a percentage point shy of the critical 50 per cent threshold necessary to avoid doing it all over again in a runoff next month. 

There were early indications that while Republicans were in for a good night, it wouldn't be the “red wave” some campaign strategists and experts had been anticipating.  

In Virginia, a state many were watching for signs of Republican strength, challenger Jen Kiggans appeared to be on track to unseat incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria, a member of the committee investigating the Jan. 6 riots.

But another incumbent, former federal agent and CIA officer Rep. Abigail Spanberger, managed to eke out a narrow win over GOP rival Yesli Vega, as did Rep. Jennifer Wexton over challenger Hung Cao.  

However it turns out, Canada and the United States will remain important economic partners who will work together for the mutual benefit of people on both sides of the border, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said earlier in the day. 

“We have worked through very different configurations of administrations in the past,” Trudeau said when asked about the potential fallout. 

“The friendship and the solidity of the relationship between Canada and the United States will continue, regardless of whatever happens in the midterms.”

Polling has suggested the Democrats would be in for a rough night as voters express persistent concerns about the U.S. economy, stubborn inflation and crime.

Republicans are expected to win control of the House of Representatives, while the balance of power in the Senate comes down to a handful of key races, including Pennsylvania and Georgia.

It may also take a while for the dust to settle: officials in Pennsylvania warn it could take several days to count all the mail-in votes, while Georgia could need a run-off election next month to settle its Senate battle.

Midterm elections are rarely a cakewalk for the party that controls the White House, but stubborn inflation, economic anxiety and President Joe Biden's dismal approval ratings have been rocket fuel for Republicans. 

Democrats have seized on fears over abortion rights and the failing health of the country's democracy to portray the GOP as a fundamental threat to basic American freedoms. 

In Arizona, Trump-adjacent Republican Kari Lake's bid to become governor has consumed a lot of political oxygen and vaulted her onto the national stage, fuelling speculation she could end up on a presidential ticket before long. 

But with nearly half of polls reporting, Lake appeared to be down substantially to Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs, while on the Senate side, Sen. Mark Kelly was enjoying a comfortable lead over GOP hopeful Blake Masters. 

Next door in Nevada, Republicans remained hopeful that Adam Laxalt would be able to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto.

In the least surprising result of the night, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely expected to challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination for president in 2024, handily fended off Democratic rival Charlie Crist.

Voters in Massachusetts made history by making Attorney General Maura Healey not only their first female governor, but also one of the first openly lesbian governors in the U.S. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2022.