Ottawa Valley home sales are stuck in a steady decline

Real estate agents, along with buyers and sellers throughout the Ottawa Valley are crossing their fingers and hoping that July real estate sales finally take a turn for the positive and bring an end to the four-month consecutive drop in real estate sales as highlighted in the recently released June report.

The number of homes sold through the MLS System of the Renfrew County Real Estate Board totalled 176 units in June 2022, down 19.3 percent from June 2021.

The June final numbers tell the story that many local realtors are growing tired of hearing. It showed that housing sales continue to decline in Renfrew County as part of a national trend. What began in March as the first month of negative sales total was the start of a four-month trend of declining numbers. The decline began as the spread of the COVID-19 and its variants appeared to be under control.

The March sales total began four-months of steady decline in the local market while at the same time interest rates were expected to begin a continual percentage rate in an attempt to will ultimately reduce both the rate and impact of higher prices due to inflationary pressures. The increasing rates to secure a mortgage shows no signs of slowing down and in some cases setting daily records in terms of the worst percentage rate since 1981.

Several other factors, including drastic reductions in the global supply chain, huge increase in housing supplies like wood and bricks led to slowdowns in housing developments. it is common for all sectors within the Canadian economy attempt to forecast their long term projections based on various Many real estate professionals often use past cycles of five and ten years to gauge consistent trends in terms of sales and new development. The comparatives are developed by using year-to-date totals of a certain month and follows its 12-month pattern.

In the case of Renfrew County, home sales were 26.1 percent below the five-year average and 17.4 percent below the 10-year average for the month of June. On a year-to-date basis, sales totalled 1,019 units over the first six months of the year.

With housing sales of just over 1,000 which represents a substantial decrease of 25.3 percent from the same period in 2021, it may keep home-sellers awake at night wondering if they might actually not sell and lose money in the process.

Despite these increases, the actual dollar value of all home sales in June 2022 was $81.2 million, a reduction of 10.2 percent from the same month in 2021.

Similar to the national trend, the number of new listings in Renfrew County decreased by three from June 2021. There were 284 new residential listings last month. Unfortunately, for those trying to put a roof over their heads, it doesn't appear to be getting any easier in the immediate future.

New listings were 4.2 percent below the five-year average and 10 percent below the 10-year average for the month of June. The overall housing situation in the Valley are feeling the effects of the global supply chain slowdown. Anyone hoping to remain in a very remote setting or a determined buyer who is insistent on owning one of he limited waterfront properties available, there choices are extremely rare and will likely come with an inflated price. To make matters worse, there is a limited number of small major housing developments, with most of those taking place in urban centres like Petawawa, Pembroke, Renfrew and Arnprior.

Active residential listings numbered 298 units on the market at the end of June, a decline of 7.5 percent from the end of June 2021. Active listings haven’t been this low in the month of June in two decades. Active listings were 48.7 percent below the five-year average and 68.5 percent below the 10-year average. In the case of Renfrew County, as with several hundred Ontario regions, the month of July is traditionally one of the strongest months in terms of overall sales and development.

Most businesses involved in the housing market are hopeful the month-long downward trend of gas prices and in some cases, small reductions in food prices, will be positive signs that things are getting back to normal and be reflected in an increase in real estate sales in this extremely limited market.